....LMB: "Crystal Ball"....

October 28, 2004

So how is this election gonna turn out?

I'm no optimist, but common sense tells me that Kerry should win (in the popular vote, anyway)(presuming that there is no massive voter fraud or suppression).

Last election, Bush got around half the vote, and that was back when people bought his "compassionate conservative" shit. This election, Bush's campaign strategy has been to smear Kerry and pander to his base. The smears do not seem to have had much impact, and he's been hemorrhaging base voters. Some Republicans feel tricked, some are angry or scared about Iraq, some are scared by his religious fundamentalism, and he's even lost a lot of the military vote for his mishandling of a ridiculous war.

It seems to me that to win, he'd have to replace these defecting voters with new independents or convert some Democrats. But he's made little effort to do that-- until this week, saying that he's not opposed to gay civil unions and praising the Democratic party. And starting to reach out to a potential voter bloc with only 6 days left in the campaign... probably a little late.

On top of that Bush has angered so many people that they've registered in droves just so they can vote against him.

If I'm right (and that's no sure thing), the only logical way that Bush can win this is if a) lots of former non-voters are inspired by Bush's presidency that they come out to vote or b) lots of Democrats are so scared of terrorism that they feel they have to vote for the hombre mas macho.

So I think things are looking... positive. All in all, I hope the vote's not even close. I hope Kerry stomps Bush into the fucking ground.

Posted by Jake at 12:37 AM | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Thought this might interest you.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/3755686.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/3951615.stm

http://www.kuro5hin.org/story/2004/10/24/115621/52

Posted by: at October 28, 2004 06:39 AM

If everyone voted, the whole US would be Blue, except, maybe, Alaska.

Posted by: inonthekilltaker at October 28, 2004 12:00 PM

It's going to be a dogfight, between Smart Dog and IdealogueDog. I've personally made sure over 200 voters are at the polls for Kerry. And that's just in 2 days. Do what you can to make sure this country stays sane for the next 4 years.

And as far as stomping Bush into the fucking ground, that's just an insult to ground everywhere. We should drop his sorry ass into Baghdad and see how long his smiling, pandering bullshit stays alive.

Posted by: DoingWhatICan at October 28, 2004 05:15 PM

The Third world Human Rights activists would have your ass for that. :)

Posted by: at October 28, 2004 05:56 PM

Yeah, seriously, I'm not sure W would even make good fertilizer, in spite his exceptionally high manure content...!

Dunno 'bout Alaska. Here in Alabama we would still be red... "and PROUD OF IT!" This state, seriously, seems over-run with Kool Aid drinkers and un-funny cartoon zombie people. But I do see Kerry signs & stickers around, so there's always hope.

Posted by: jeff at October 29, 2004 07:49 AM

My sister lives in Alabama, she said(as a joke) that they had public stonings of Kerry supporters.

Posted by: inonthekilltaker at October 29, 2004 10:42 AM

As far as foreign policy goes, Kerry is just as bad as Bush. IMHO, the last thing this country needs is another Yale blue-blood with a silver spoon in his mouth using our military as a corporate police force. If you think any of that's going to change by voting Kerry into office you've got to be blind AND deaf.

Try voting Libertarian, we might get our Bill of Rights back.

Posted by: nobody cares at October 29, 2004 10:41 PM

Voting for Badnarik is a vote for Bush. It may not be enough for many of the self-righteous, but there is a difference between Bush and Kerry. If you seriously want to create a viable Libertarian party, get some elected at the local level and to the House and Senate. Until they start to fill up those ranks, their Presidential candidates are nothing but an exercise in futility.

Posted by: brian at October 30, 2004 08:48 AM

Hey! Another Third partier! I'm with Greenepeace, but I'll be voting for Kerry, I think it's a choice between the good that is sure to fail, and the lesser of two evils.

Posted by: inonthekilltaker at October 30, 2004 11:42 AM

All I am saying is that Kerry is just as much a shill for the military-industrial-media complex as Bush, and that you'd have to be blind not to see it.

I have no answers, and no, I won't vote for a third party. I won't vote at all, because I realize that the popular vote in this country means nothing.

Wake up. Open your eyes. Look at what happened in 2001.

Posted by: nobody cares at October 31, 2004 03:47 PM

The following is an excerpt from a tv broadcast from NNBC, the National Nihilist Broadcasting Company:

Well, it's a good day for Nihilism, we are, with the majority of people not voting, the leading party in the history of the nation, however, we face many rivals, most notably Michael Badnarik, who is most likely to beat us in losing in all 50 states, but we will stand strong against Mr. Badnarik, firm in our resolve not to win! The clip I will now show you is from a recent Nihilist campaign rally, being held by our leading canidate, Alliase Nonamme:

(crowd cheering as Nonamme takes stage)
I am A. Nonamme, as a representitive of the National Nihilist Party, I will tell you now, we will not vote! We will stand firm in the face of resolution! We shall win! We have overwhelming support, 75% in the national posts! No Party has lost more than us, and none will! I urge those potential Nihilists who are listening, to not do your civic duty! Do not go to the polls tomorrow! Vote late, and judiciously!
(crowd goes wild)
(Nihilist Chief Strategist Lazze Bohnse takes stage, crowd claps)
I, Lazze Bohnse, will swear, as a leading loafer in the nihilist party, swear that I will not serve the nation!(crowd Cheers)
We will do nothing to stop the terrorists!
(crowd cheers, louder)
We will do nothing for education!
(crowd cheers)
AND WE WILL NOT GO TO THE POLLS AND VOTE, SHOWING OUR STRENGTH IN NUMBERS TO EVERYONE! EVEN OUR CLOSEST RIVAL, MICHAEL BADNARIK!
(crowd goes wild)
(cut back to NNBC newsdesk)
Well, this is Knoin Ishataeve, signing off with this message: Don't vote, don't rally, don't go to the polls, and over everything else, don't show them we are a force to be reckond with!

Posted by: inonthekilltaker at October 31, 2004 05:41 PM

You have two choices for President. Both choices will lead to the same result as far as U.S. foreign policy is concerned. More pre-emptive corporate wars which will result in widespread ill-will towards the U.S. I don't see that as a choice at all.

Perhaps if there were enough political parties represented here to cover the wide variety of views and opinions in this vast melting pot, more people would go to the polls, and not be so "nihilistic".

Perhaps if people weren't constantly told by a corporate-owned media that voting outside the party lines is a waste of a vote, the U.S. would have already had a President who was a Bhuddist, or a Muslim, or a Jew, or an Agnostic, or a female, or anything other than a rich white anglo-saxon male.

Melting pot my ass.

As a side note, it IS possible to think for yourself instead of just c/p'ing someone else's rhetoric.

Posted by: nobody cares at October 31, 2004 06:50 PM

I DID make that one up, there is no Nihilist party that I know of.

yeah, I agree wth you on that one, after all, I'm with greenpeace, but we have the choice between A: the pinheaded corrupt frat/daddy's boy and B: the probably corrupt, but at least intelligent enough to conceal and maybe make up for it. I have my ballot ready for Nader, or, when he croaks the latest candidate for GP, but if every GP supporter voted for a GP canidate, We would lose the race to choice A, this movement takes time, I am being patient.

Posted by: inonthekilltaker at November 1, 2004 08:16 AM

I'm gonna drag my ass out and vote for Franken-Kerry. At least a rape victim will still be able to get a safe abortion that way.

Posted by: nobody cares at November 2, 2004 12:40 AM

good luck, with the Republicans at large, you really can't be sure you're vote gets counted. I got a feeling we're gonna kick their asses though.

Posted by: at November 2, 2004 09:51 AM

Hey Nobody Cares, are you actually a right-wing libertarian or do you just not know what they're all about? You do realize that economically, they're further to the right than the Republicans, right?

Posted by: Eric at November 3, 2004 10:35 PM

Fiscally, yes, culturally, no. Shit, I'm more fiscally conservative than Bush! That ass spends like he's mad!

Posted by: at November 4, 2004 08:05 AM
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Media News

November 16, 2004

Tales of Media Woe

Senate May Ram Copyright Bill- one of the most depressing stories of the day that didn't involve death or bombs. It's the music and movie industries' wet dream. It criminalizes peer-to-peer software makers, allows the government to file civil lawsuits on behalf of these media industries, and eliminates fair use. Fair use is the idea that I can use a snippet of a copyrighted work for educational, political, or satirical purposes, without getting permission from the copyright-holder first.

And most tellingly, the bill legalizes technology that would automatically skip over "obejctionable content" (i.e. sex and violence) in a DVD, but bans devices that would automatically skip over commericals. This is a blatant, blatant, blatant gift to the movie industry. Fuck the movie industry, fuck the music industry, fuck the Senate.

Music industry aims to send in radio cops- the recording industry says that you're not allowed to record songs off the radio, be it real radio or internet radio. And now they're working on preventing you from recording songs off internet radio through a mixture of law and technological repression (although I imagine their techno-fixes will get hacked pretty quickly).

The shocking truth about the FCC: Censorship by the tyranny of the few- blogger Jeff Jarvis discovers that the recent $1.2 million FCC fine against a sex scene in Fox's "Married By America" TV show was not levied because hundreds of people wrote the FCC and complained. It was not because 159 people wrote in and complained (which is the FCC's current rationale). No, thanks to Jarvis' FOIA request, we find that only 23 people (of the show's several million viewers) wrote in and complained. On top of that, he finds that 21 of those letters were just copy-and-paste email jobs that some people attached their names to. Jarvis then spins this a bit by saying that "only 3" people actually wrote letters to the FCC, which is misleading but technically true. So somewhere between 3 and 23 angry people can determine what you can't see on television. Good to know.

Reuters Union Considers Striking Over Layoffs- will a strike by such a major newswire service impact the rest of the world's media?

Pentagon Starts Work On War Internet- the US military is talking about the creation of a global, wireless, satellite-aided computer network for use in battle. I think I saw a movie about this once...

Conservative host returns to the air after week suspension for using racial slur- Houston radio talk show host (and somtime Rush Limbaugh substitute) Mark Belling referred to Mexican-Americans as "wetbacks" on his show. He was suspended for a couple of weeks, and then submitted a written apology for the racial slur to a local newspaper. But he seems to be using the slur and its surrounding controversy to boost his conservative cred with his listeners.

Stay Tuned for Nudes- Cleveland TV news anchor Sharon Reed aired a story about artist Spencer Tunick, who uses large numbers of naked volunteers in his installations and photographs. The news report will be unique in that it will not blur or black-out the usual naughty bits. The story will air late at night, when it's allegedly okay with the FCC if you broadcast "indecent" material. The author of this article doesn't seem to notice that Reed first claims that this report is a publicity stunt, but then claims it's a protest against FCC repression. I'd like to think it's the latter, but I'm not that much of a sucker.

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Jake's first attempt at homemade Mongolican barbecue:

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